🔥 HOTHot pick — model ≥46% win confidence. Our strongest tier: historically wins ~1 in 2.
⚡ HIGHHigh confidence — 36–45% win confidence, wins ~4 in 10.
STRONGStrong pick — 30–35% win confidence. Still well above a random pick.
🎯 SHARPSharp race — passed our strictest quality gate. The races we back hardest.
👑 CLEAR FAVClear favourite — our top pick leads our 2nd pick by 5+ points of win probability.
⚖️ TOSS-UPToss-up — our top two are within 2 points of each other: a genuine coin-flip.
💎 VALUEValue — our model rates the horse's chance higher than its market price implies: positive expected value at the listed odds.
🥈 QUINELLAClear quinella — our top 2 stand clear of the 3rd pick (≥4-point gap).
🥉 TRIFECTAClear trifecta — our top 3 stand clear of the 4th pick.
🎖️ FIRST-4Clear first-4 — our top 4 stand clear of the 5th pick.
SURFACE: HEAVYTrack surface — Firm/Good = dry, fast track. Soft or Heavy = wet track; our confidence is lower on wet tracks.
✓ ✓ ✗Result — our top pick won (green ✓), placed (amber ✓) or missed (✗).